American Express Championship Picks and Plays
The PGA Tour is back on the mainland for this week's event that promises to be a shootout in the Coachella Valley.
As players knocked the rust off in Hawaii to start the year, the PGA Tour is back on the mainland as the “West Coast Swing” kicks off this week in Palm Springs at the American Express Championship.
The American Express Championship is a unique one, as it is a pro-am event, much like that Pebble Beach. Because of this, three courses are used - the La Quinta Country Club, Nicklaus Tournament Course and the PGA West Stadium Course, which is used twice. The cut comes after Saturday’s third round once players all play their round on each of the three courses. Sunday’s final round heads back to the Stadium Course at PGA West, where a winner will be crowned.
The American Express Championship is a birdie fest and one of the easiest tournaments of the year on the PGA Tour. Since 2016, the average winning score for the event is -24.5. Amateur Nick Dunlap won last year at -29, becoming the first amateur to win a PGA Tour event since Phil Mickelson in 1991.
Sleepers
Harry Hall (+4000)
Few players are off to a better start in 2025 than Harry Hall. The Englishman finished with top 10’s in both events to begin the new season, he will look to carry that over this week in Palm Springs.
Improved ball striking has led to Hall finishing in the top 15 of his last 5 events dating back to last season. An elite putter, Hall looks to keep his hot start going this year in a tournament that Jon Rahm once called “a piece of s*** putting contest.”
Ben Griffin (+6000)
Heading to one of the easiest tournaments of the year, where a player has to go low to win, why not pick the player who led the PGA Tour in birdies last year. Ben Griffin posted 479 birdies in 2024, which was 33 more than second place. Birdies will be flying all over the place in Palm Springs, having a horse in your stable that knows how to make them is a no brainer.
Griffin is coming off a T45 to start the year in Hawaii, but that is on a tighter golf course. Driving is the key stat that usually holds Griffin back, but at the American Express, the misses can be big and this should mitigate his weakness.
Griffin fired rounds of 64 and 66 last year at the Stadium Course and led the field in strokes gained putting. When taking a flyer on a long-shot this week, you can do much worse than Ben Griffin.
Picks to Win
Si Woo Kim (+3500)
When looking at players to win this week, having a victory in this event, one that takes knowledge of three different courses, is a huge benefit. Si Woo Kim took home the title at the American Express in 2021 and he looks to make it his second victory in this event in 2025.
Besides his victory in 2021, Kim has yet to miss a cut in seven career starts in this event, including a T9 and three top 25 finishes. I am not worried about the missed cut last week at the Sony Open as his ball striking stats were good, he was just held back by an atrocious putting performance. Bad putting isn’t new to Si Woo Kim, but he tends to come back strong after one of these performances and I expect a nice bounce back this week.
He also has one other distinguishing quality this week, he is a Pete Dye specialist. Two of his four career wins have come on Pete Dye courses. Over his career, he has played 113 rounds on Pete Dye designed golf courses and is 3rd in strokes gained tee-to-green in these events. The old “horses for courses” adage definitely applies to this pick.
Justin Thomas (+1200)
Speaking of “horses for courses,” Justin Thomas is first in strokes gained tee-to green on Pete Dye courses in that same time period as Si Woo Kim above. Thomas was T3 in this event last year and was T7 in his previous start in this event in 2015.
All three golf courses in this event are wide and this bodes well for Thomas who can get erratic with the driver at times. A key stat to look out for is strokes gained on par 4’s between 350-400 yards as many are in this tournament. Thomas is 2nd on tour in this department, which should give him plenty of birdie opportunities this week.
Coming off a final round 63 at the Sentry and seemingly poised for a comeback year, if Thomas can putt even average this week, he should be in the hunt for the title.