AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am Picks and Plays
The PGA Tour heads to Iconic Pebble Beach fo find some normalcy
I thought last week’s picks could hit after a decent Friday…… That’s until every single one of them pulled a Ludvig and threw up all over themselves in the final round. We need a bounce back week and what better place to get back on the horse, than Pebble Beach.
A par-72 that measures only 6,972 yards, Pebble Beach is the 2nd shortest track on Tour, however, contains the most bunkers with 118. Particularly, the ones around the greens are notably tricky. From an agronomy standpoint, the fairways and rough are a mixture of Poa and ryegrass while the greens are bumpy California Poa annua.
One of the main reasons this classical course has remained challenging and stood the test of time to some degree, is the ingenious way it uses the expansive slopes that travel across the property. Most of the fairways tilt toward the ocean and often results in players hitting their approach shots from uneven lies with the ball above or below their feet. As you can imagine, this only adds to the challenge of trying to land second shots onto table top greens that are the smallest on TOUR. The average green is only 3,500 square feet, and the average green depth is only 26 paces, so the margin for error is minimal.
This isn’t the only course of the week though, Spyglass Hill poses even more of a challenge if there is weather. Slightly longer than Pebble, it is heavily tree lined with 5 of its holes being exposed to the coast. Historically, it has played the most difficult of the courses at the event, and that is including Monterrey Peninsula which is NOT in the rotation this year.
This is another Elevated Event, so the big timers are coming out to play!! Even World #1 Scottie Scheffler will be back from injury. You can see from this Dylan Dethier tweet that it’s been a bizarre season to say the least. Many of the top names in golf have been out of commision for one reason or another. Only Tiger and Xander won’t be playing this week from the list below.
Sleepers
Andrew Novak (+8000)
A former guest on the Break80 podcast, Novak as we call him, is ballin! A self proclaimed sniper on the basketball court, he will need to see his accuracy translate to the golf course if he is going to make some noise on these tiny greens. Coming off a top 5 finish last week at Torrey, he now has two top 3 finishes in his last 5 starts.
He is sitting at 17th in strokes gained total (combination of approach, around the green, off the tee, and putting) in the 2025 season so he is playing well all around. His T-20 finish in last year’s event here also perks my ears up. For those that follow, I love a little course history mixed with current play. Shooters shoot, so if Novak sinks a few from deep, maybe he finds himself in the mix again in the final round.
Tom Hoge (+8000)
It’s one thing to have a sleeper with not very good odds, it’s another to have a sleeper with not very good odds WHO HAS ACTUALLY WON THIS EVENT! Past champion in 2022 and another former guest on the Break80 Podcast, Tom Hoge’s game sets up well for this kind of golf.
It’s been a struggle off the tee for him early in the year but the good news is…… this isn’t a bomber’s paradise. He can set himself up for his deadly iron game with other clubs off the tee. He currently ranks 9th in approach to the green and is putting well on top of that (35th). His course history as a past champion is no secret, but he also finished 6th in 2024. Pair that with some solid results early in 2025 including a top 10 finish at the Sentry, and I’d be willing to bet that Tom Hoge might even have money on himself this week.
Picks to Win
Patrick Cantlay (+2000)
California native Patrick Cantlay not only has played well at this event, his slow play style fits right in with Pro-ams! I’m kidding….. sort of. Cantlay’s WORST finish in his last four appearances has been T-11. We also know where his game is at. With finishes of 15th at the Sentry and 5th at The AMEX, we have some evidence that his current game is fairly sharp, unlike many of the other big names.
Not known for his power, Cantlay has relied on precision and course strategy. Pebble Beach is, by all accounts, a strategist’s course, one which Cantlay can separate himself and has done so in the past. Thow in the fact that he knows how to putt on poa and I don’t see how he doesn’t find himself in contention come Sunday.
Justin Thomas (+1400)
JT is getting his sexy back….. and I’m not talking Timberlake. It’s been no secret that he has had some tough moments over the last few years for someone of his caliber, but he has fought his way back and is ready to find the winner’s circle once again.
With current play suggesting that he is close, we need to be in front of his next win before his price tag gets even higher. He was T2 at the ZOZO this fall, 3rd at the Hero, Top 30 at The Sentry and then runner-up at The American Express. He also finished T6 at Pebble Beach last year. He's dominated on short courses with the best strokes gained number on such venues in the field over their last 24 rounds while also being fourth on approach from 100-125 yards and sixth in weighted SG: Approach over that same 24-round span. He's going to win a big one soon and this seems like an ideal fit with how he's hitting his wedges and as a positive putter on Poa. Could this be JT’s week?