Cognizant Classic Picks and Plays
Is "The Bear Trap" at PGA National ready for some carnage?
Okay, I’ll admit it—I did not have Brian Campbell winning the Mexico Open last week. Golf is bizarre like that! He’s one of, if not the shortest hitters on tour, yet he won a bomber’s event. How do you predict that? But that’s what makes golf so fun and unique. Over 72 holes, anyone can find their rhythm and walk away a winner.
This Week: Welcome to the Florida Swing!
It’s officially time for the Florida swing to begin, starting with PGA National (Championship Course). This track presents an entirely different challenge compared to what we’ve seen so far in 2025—water, and lots of it.
PGA National is one of the toughest courses on tour, featuring water hazards on 15 of the 18 holes. Just on the infamous Bear Trap (holes 15-17), 32 balls found the water during last year’s tournament. Disaster lurks everywhere, and when the wind picks up, those par-3s become brutally difficult. There’s no easy bailout, making nearly every shot a pressure-packed decision.
Key Metrics for Success
If you’re trying to predict who will contend this week, here’s what matters most:
Par-4 Scoring Average – With only two par-5s on the course, performance on par-4s is crucial.
Strokes Gained: Ball Striking – Historically, ball striking has been a stronger predictor of success at PGA National than short-game performance. Simply put, you have to hit your spots to avoid trouble.
Strokes Gained: Approach – This stat has been the single biggest indicator of winners here. With water everywhere, precision iron play is non-negotiable.
The recipe is clear—now we just need to find the right players to fit the puzzle.
Sleepers
Lucas Glover (+6000)
"Mr. Glova Glova" (in my best Shaggy voice) is a ball-flight specialist. Accuracy over distance is his calling card, which plays well at a venue where he’s already posted two top-five finishes. His 3rd-place finish at Pebble Beach earlier this year suggests he’s striking it well, and the broomstick putter seems to be cooperating—for now.
📊 Key Stats:
4th in driving accuracy
10th in proximity to the hole
22nd in approaches from inside 200 yards
19th in scrambling
The one stat nobody wants to see? He’s currently ranked #1 in sweat factor. Let’s hope the Florida heat takes it easy on his pants.
Ryan Gerard (+10000)
Most of the golf world might not know Ryan Gerard yet, but he’s making noise after moving up from the Korn Ferry Tour. In 2025, he’s made all five cuts and posted T-15 (Farmers) and T-17 (Mexico) in his last two starts.
Gerard’s history at PGA National is strong—he finished 4th in 2023 while gaining 8.5 strokes ball striking. If that’s not enough, he also won the 2015 AJGA Polo Golf Junior Classic at this very course. Oh, and he currently lives in Jupiter, Florida.
A long shot? Absolutely. But don’t be shocked if he’s still around on Sunday.
Picks to Win
Shane Lowry (+2000)
Shane Lowry’s history here is simply too good to ignore. He’s posted three consecutive top-four finishes at this event, and given that he lives in Jupiter, this is a home game for him.
📊 Key Stats:
#1 in strokes gained total in Florida
#2 in strokes gained total on difficult courses
If not for a brutal Florida squall on the 72nd hole in 2022, he might already have a win here. And let’s not forget—he thrives in windy conditions (he does have an Open Championship, after all).
The question isn’t whether he’ll be in contention—it’s whether he can finally close the deal.
Denny Mccarthy (+4000)
This is a classic case of trying to get ahead of the curve. Sure, there are bigger favorites, but Denny McCarthy is knocking on the door of his first PGA Tour win.
He was in the final group at the Genesis Invitational, and this type of field is one he can definitely hang with. Given PGA National’s difficulty, his elite putting ability could be a game-changer.
📊 Key Stats:
22nd in scoring average
48th in greens in regulation
His putter is a certified weapon, 4th in strokes gained putting in 2024
The downside? Nearly 200 PGA Tour starts, still no wins. The talent is there, but can he overcome the mental hurdle and finally close out a tournament?