The Players Championship Picks and Plays

TPC Sawgrass awaits for what was once called, "The 5th major"

Bay Hill delivered last week as a signature event, giving us some fantastic TV viewing! Shoutout to the team behind the Arnold Palmer Invitational for setting up those firm, fast conditions paired with extremely thick rough. It was a real treat watching the pros having to be precise with their shots. For those who weren’t? Well… I won’t name names, but a handful of players failed to break 80 in at least one of their rounds. I just shot an 81 recently, so I can relate!

Now, onto TPC Sawgrass for one of the best events of the year—or at least “better than most.” Designed by Pete Dye, Sawgrass demands strategic, positional tee shots while punishing wayward approaches with its complex bunkering and tricky greenside runoffs. In theory, players can find the water on any of the 18 holes, but the final three-hole stretch is among the most exciting of the year. The highlight? The infamous 17th hole—a diabolical island green that can make even the best ball strikers squirm. Last year alone, 36 balls found the water over four rounds of tournament play. Hole 18 has also seen its share of drama. Last year, Wyndham Clark lipped out on the 72nd hole, missing the chance to take Scottie Scheffler to a playoff. Speaking of Scottie, can we call him "The Players Slayer?" He’s won the last two tournaments, and I don’t see why he can’t go for a three-peat.

Golf Monthly

Check out this write-up from Covers.com on the specific type of player who has won at Sawgrass in the past…..

Experience

• Only twice since 1983 has a player won The Players on his course debut (Hal Sutton, 1983; Craig Perks, 2002).

• 10 of the last 14 Players winners played in at least five previous Players Championships.

• 15 of the last 16 winners have had a finish here of at least 23rd or better at TPC Sawgrass.

Incoming Form

• 26 of the last 26 Players winners made the cut in the previous start before their Players victories.

• 12 of the last 13 Players winners finished 22nd or better in the previous start before their victory.

• 11 of the last 13 Players winners had a top-5 finish in the calendar year before their victory.

Cream Rises to the Top

• 19 of the last 21 Players winners were rated 45th or better in the OWGR (Official World Golf Rankings).

Early Bird Gets the Worm

• 15 of the last 18 Players winners had a morning tee time during Thursday’s opening round.

Let’s get to the picks…..

SLEEPERS

Doug Ghim (+11000)

He always seems to pop up on this particular leaderboard. In his four starts at this event, he’s gone 29th, 6th, MC (missed cut), and 16th. What else do we know about him? He’s above average off the tee, elite with his irons (6th in SG: Approach), and decent around the greens. However, he’s nearly dead last on the PGA TOUR in Strokes Gained: Putting. It’s hard to compete with the field when you can’t make a putt.

Golf.com

Ghim has only had one top-20 finish in his six events this season, but it came in Florida at The Cognizant Classic in the Palm Beaches, on a course that shares similarities with TPC Sawgrass. Can Doug find enough swagger on the greens to put himself in a position he’s been in before at The Players Championship?

Daniel Berger (+7000)

I can’t get enough of DB. He’s fully back and starting to remind people of the player he was before his injuries. A true Floridian through and through, he’s always loved the Florida swing, with a pair of top-25 finishes, but his game has also traveled well. He finished 2nd at the Waste Management and 12th at the Genesis Invitational, so it’s clear his current form is strong.

NBC Sports

What about his course history? He hasn’t played Sawgrass since 2022, when he finished 13th. Before that, he had two top-10 finishes in his six other starts here. Off the tee, Berger likes to keep it low and under control, which can be a big advantage in tight quarters. He’s 12th in total strokes gained this year. Outside of a streaky putter, his game is quite complete. And let’s not forget, he’s got some serious dog in him—he’s a true competitor who’s never afraid to rise to the occasion.

PICKS TO WIN

Make no mistake, this week, like every week, is Scottie Scheffler’s to lose. A chance to 3-peat, especially when no one else has won back-to-back before him, would be truly something special. It’s definitely going to be a fun week of entertainment seeing him try to accomplish this.

Ludvig Aberg (+2000)

Ludvig was anything but himself last week. He was extremely inconsistent, with quite a few mistakes on his scorecard. However, he did finish on a high note with a 68 on Sunday. I think he’ll refocus and get back on track this week. He’s only played in this event once before, finishing 8th.

AP NEWS

Generational talents off the tee have a massive advantage in this modern game. Ludvig’s ability to find the fairway at distances others cannot is a separating skill we look for when having to compete with the likes of Scottie. Combine that with a strong approach game from any yardage and a fantastic birdie-or-better percentage, and he’s a pick to be holding another trophy come Sunday.

Hidecki Matsuyama (+3000)

To this day, I’ll never forget Hideki’s 9-under 63 during the first round of the 2020 Players Championship—only for it to be a glorified exhibition. With COVID on the rise and the world uncertain, the tournament was canceled after Thursday’s round. Hideki has a knack for these kinds of performances, as he proved at the Sentry by practically making birdies on half of the holes. The challenge with him is timing his peak, and that’s what makes it difficult to invest in him.

asahi.com

He seems to fit every trend this week and boasts an impressive track record at the course, including a fifth-place finish and a T6 in his last two appearances. Players with strong pedigrees tend to thrive at TPC Sawgrass, and Matsuyama certainly fits the bill. However, his putter remains his kryptonite, and his struggles off the tee (114th in SG: Off the Tee) are a concern on a course like this. That said, Hideki has won some major tournaments in a fashion many envy. When he gets hot, few can keep up—let’s hope this is one of those weeks.

ENJOY THE PLAYERS CHAMPIONSHIP EVERYONE!!!!