Waste Management Phoenix Open Picks and Plays
This week is more than just golf, it's madness
It’s the Get Wasted Management Open week! Crack those cold ones, it’s time to get silly. The energy and excitement will be on full display from the first shot, to the very last. The risk/reward holes down the stretch of TPC Scottsdale rarely disappoint from a viewing experience and I fully expect that trend to continue in 2025.
With the pro-am format behind us, it’s time to get back to regular viewing on a golf course that seems to favor some course history. You either choose to embrace the atmosphere or let it eat you up (I’m talking to you Zach Johnson!). TPC Scottsdale has proven to produce some fantastic winners in the last decade. Scottie Scheffler, Brooks Koepka, Hidecki, and Rickie to name a few. I’m looking forward to see who will be the king of the trash come Superbowl Sunday.
SLEEPERS
Charley Hoffman (+12000)
Mr. Waste Management himself! When you wear a green glove for your sponsor and make birdies, you are the face of this event. With two top 15 finishes in his last two starts here, and with one of them being a runner up, it’s something you can’t ignore. We also can’t forget that he has made 11 out of his last 12 cuts including a top 5 finish at the American Express.
He is widely known for fast starts and then trying to hang on for dear life (see old Masters’ Thursday leaderboards). If he can have one of his Thursday explosions, perhaps Chuck can find himself in situation much like last year . There is one thing I do know, he will fire at flags and look like the Green Goblin doing it.
JJ Spaun (+7000)
Known for his accuracy, John Michael Spaun Jr., or better known as JJ, will look to stay hot and avoid getting himself in any peculiar predicaments. TPC Scottsdale may not have accuracy as a huge indicator of great play here, but one bad swing can derail anyone in the desert. He doesn’t have great course history, but he’s played well in other desert events and has two top 15 finishes in his last four events so he is swinging it well.
The 2022 Valero Texas Open champion may need a few things to go his way this week to get in contention. Can he handle the pressure of this environment and find his inner 2017 mojo when he took T-4 in this very same event? I’m not overly excited about a potential win, but then again, they are called sleepers for a reason.
Picks to Win
Sam Burns (+2500)
For the sake of this article, let’s pretend someone other than Scottie Scheffler is going to win this week. Why can’t it be his best friend on tour Sam Burns? In three starts this season he has finished T-8, T-29, and T-22. Sammy B is third in greens in reg and 21st in SG: putting this season, a great combination for a tournament where the winning score usually ends up around 20 under par.
His course history also gives a person confidence in him this week. His last two starts at the WMPO have been a 6th place finish in 2023 and a 3rd place finish in 2024. Let’s just hope that he will handle the crowd this week better than he did back in 2023 at Marco Simone.
Tom Kim (+3000)
It was great seeing Tom Kim in contention at the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-am last weekend! I tend to forget how much moxy he has in his ability to engage with the crowd around him. With a pure golf swing and confidence high, he could turn a profit this week. Currently 14th in proximity, he will have plenty of makeable birdie looks.
He doesn’t have any top 10’s at this event but he has played well enough to know it’s a course that can suit him. Aggressive play will be rewarded this week, does the youngster have the cajones to make the shots down the stretch when it matters most? I’ll have the popcorn out watching this week to find out…..
**Tune into the BREAK80 podcast to hear a breakdown of the WMPO next week!